Introduction to Systems Thinking

Jurassic Park is not only a great novel and movie, but an excellent example of a complex system. The park itself is a system in that it has elements, interconnections, and a purpose (Meadows, 13), but within it are embedded other systems similar to a Russian nesting doll. Each element in the overall system of the park can be identified and the interactions between these elements cataloged to a surprising degree of accuracy; however, one of the major themes in Jurassic Park is what happens with this increasing complexity. The chaos-mathematician Dr. Ian Malcolm argues our one-at-a-time deterministic way of looking at the world is insufficient. He argues this is due to the stochastic nature of reality derived from inherit feedback loops and our inability to process the vast information available. Every step taken further from planning the park introduces an extra element of unpredictability and information not being taken into account. Instead of having a balancing feedback loop, Michael Crichton opts for a reinforcing feedback loop dominated by chaos. I find the concepts of the dominating feedback loop and information flow especially interesting because they help determine the overall behavior of the system.

Another thought that arose from this initial reading was the difference of linear and exponential relationships and their role determining feedback loops within systems. Data on population growth often shows either a linear or exponential relationship, but the exhaustive list of interconnections determining this level of growth and their magnitudes are often unknown. The reading's mention of doubling time (Meadows, 33) for exponential growth was a highlight for me although it was extraordinarily brief. Having a background in mathematics, I could elaborate on the 70/percent growth rule for anyone with interest on it in the future. 

Comments

[Alec Brazeau]

I really enjoy the example of Jurassic Park as a complex system! It would be fun to draw the diagram of the Jurassic Park system. The movie/book is a great example of the lack of human control when it comes to complex systems. As Jeff Goldblum (Dr. Ian Malcolm) says, "Life, uh, finds a way". That quote is in reference to the fact that complex systems such as nature and genetics cannot be fully controlled by humans due to their inherent chaos and randomness. What are some other systems that are too complex and chaotic to be fully controlled by us?

[Sam Krasnobrod]

You had me at Jurassic Park. I think the same sentiment can be used even when looking at a far more mild park: Yellowstone. As the Western Expansion continued through the 19th century, more and more animals were displaced, including wolves and bison. Wolves especially are critical to the survival of the ecosystem that was in place in Yellowstone as they maintained the balance of various species they preyed upon. Once the wolves were removed from the system, the elk population boomed. Fewer wolves meant that elk had no fear when it came to herbaceous activity: the elk would no longer hide in the forests, and would instead eat grass near the rivers edge – an activity that resulted in increased erosion, and a reduction in overall river health. Without getting into too much detail... it is fair to say (anecdotally) that all the species in YNP suffered as a result of wolves being removed from the system.

This is an example of a negative feedback loop. Fewer or no wolves allow for an increase in prey animals, an increase in herbivory, an increase in erosion... and so on.